A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
