Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
